The world is undergoing a monumental shift in energy consumption. For more than a century, fossil fuels like oil, coal, and natural gas have been the lifeblood of global economies, powering industries, transport, and even geopolitical influence. However, a significant transition is underway, with renewable energy sources, especially electric vehicles (EVs), at the heart of this change. This transition is not merely technological but also political, reshaping global power dynamics, fostering new conflicts, and amplifying old ones. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East, where the Israel-Iran conflict is tightly intertwined with energy resources and geopolitical manoeuvring.
In this article, we’ll explore how the global energy transition is influencing international relations, specifically focusing on the Middle East. We will also discuss how the U.S. is using arms sales to maintain influence in a changing world, ensuring its interests remain protected as energy consumption shifts from fossil fuels to renewables.
The Global Energy Transition: A Shift in Power
The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources—solar, wind, and EVs—is revolutionizing the global energy landscape. Historically, countries rich in oil reserves, such as those in the Middle East, have wielded immense geopolitical power. Oil has been central to global economics and politics, dictating alliances, conflicts, and even wars.
However, as electric vehicles gain traction and the world moves toward cleaner energy, this power structure is shifting. Key nations that have dominated due to their oil wealth are now grappling with an uncertain future, as renewable energy diminishes their traditional leverage. As we reduce reliance on oil, countries that adapt quickly to this new reality will likely maintain or enhance their influence, while those that resist change may face economic and geopolitical decline.
Electric Vehicles: A Game-Changer
Electric vehicles are the forefront of this global energy transition. EVs, which run on lithium-ion batteries instead of fossil fuels, have created a demand for new resources, such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. This shift alters global supply chains, as countries with these critical minerals become essential players in the energy transition. The future global economy could hinge not on who controls oil, but on who controls the supply of these materials, making nations like Chile, Australia, and Congo new centres of geopolitical importance.
While EVs represent a cleaner future, they also introduce fresh geopolitical challenges. Mining operations for lithium and cobalt are often located in politically unstable regions, which could lead to a new era of resource-driven conflicts. The battle for control over these supply chains is just beginning, and it mirrors the resource wars over oil in previous decades.
The Iran-Israel Conflict: An Energy Twist
At first glance, the Israel-Iran conflict may seem purely ideological, rooted in religious and historical tensions. However, energy politics plays a crucial underlying role in this geopolitical feud. Iran, sitting atop some of the world's largest oil and gas reserves, has long sought to dominate the Middle East’s energy market. Israel, a regional powerhouse, has no such resources but leverages cutting-edge technology, military strength, and Western alliances to ensure its security and economic prosperity.
As the world moves away from oil, Iran faces the potential erosion of its economic power. Iran's economy relies heavily on fossil fuel exports, and as EV adoption rises globally, the demand for oil could significantly drop, destabilizing its economy. This economic strain adds to Iran's urgency to assert regional dominance, positioning itself as a key player in both energy and political influence in the region. Iran’s nuclear ambitions and support for militant groups like Hezbollah can be viewed as attempts to secure leverage in a world where oil may no longer provide it.
For Israel, the energy transition is both a threat and an opportunity. Israel has already positioned itself as a global leader in technology, particularly in renewable energy innovations like solar power. This allows Israel to diversify its energy needs, reducing dependence on fossil fuels and positioning itself as a future leader in clean energy. The energy shift provides Israel with the chance to further entrench its regional influence while weakening traditional fossil-fuel-dependent adversaries like Iran.
This growing disparity between Israel's adaptation to renewable energy and Iran’s fossil fuel dependency intensifies the conflict. As Iran finds itself economically squeezed by falling oil demand and international sanctions, it may become more aggressive in its regional policy, aiming to disrupt and destabilize. This struggle for dominance, against the backdrop of the energy transition, continues to stoke tensions between the two nations.
U.S. Arms Sales: Fueling the Conflict
Despite the move toward renewable energy, the U.S. remains heavily involved in the geopolitics of oil—specifically through arms sales. The energy transition does not mean an end to conflict; rather, it shifts the focus of geopolitical interests. The U.S. has a long history of selling arms to nations involved in energy disputes, using military contracts as a tool to maintain influence over oil-rich regions.
Even as the U.S. invests in renewable energy at home, it continues to sell billions of dollars in weapons to Middle Eastern allies. In particular, Saudi Arabia and Israel have long been beneficiaries of American arms, used to counterbalance Iranian influence in the region. The U.S. also strategically arms Gulf states to secure its own interests in the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for global oil shipments.
The energy transition may reduce the West’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil, but it doesn’t end U.S. involvement in the region. On the contrary, the U.S. aims to remain a dominant player in the geopolitical landscape by shifting its strategies. Arms sales, diplomatic alliances, and military bases all serve as tools to maintain control and influence, especially as the region navigates the uncertainty of a post-oil future.
The Role of Proxy Wars
A direct result of these arms sales is the proliferation of proxy wars across the Middle East. As Iran and Saudi Arabia vie for dominance, the U.S. and its Western allies are drawn into these conflicts through arms deals, military aid, and diplomatic manoeuvring. Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon have all become battlegrounds where these larger energy dynamics play out in the form of proxy conflicts, with Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia supporting opposing factions.
Proxy wars allow global powers to exert influence without direct confrontation, but they also perpetuate conflict and instability. As the energy transition continues, we can expect these wars to evolve, reflecting new economic and political realities shaped by the rise of renewable energy.
The Middle East’s Renewable Energy Future
The Middle East is at a crossroads. Countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are investing heavily in renewable energy, seeing the writing on the wall as global demand for oil begins to wane. The UAE has ambitious plans for solar energy, while Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 outlines a future with diversified energy sources, including nuclear and renewables.
However, these nations face significant challenges. Oil revenues have long funded their economies, and transitioning away from fossil fuels requires massive investments, structural reforms, and a shift in political power. The success of this transition will determine the future of the region, with renewable energy leaders likely to emerge as the new powerhouses.
For Iran, the challenge is even greater. Heavily reliant on oil exports and facing sanctions that limit its economic options, Iran may struggle to adapt to the global energy transition. This economic pressure could lead to further regional instability and heightened conflict with neighbours like Israel, particularly as the latter strengthens its renewable energy sector.
Conclusion: A New Energy World Order
The global shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy is transforming not just the economy, but global politics as well. Electric vehicles and renewable energy sources are reshaping supply chains, altering geopolitical alliances, and changing the balance of power, especially in oil-dependent regions like the Middle East. The Israel-Iran conflict, fueled by energy politics, offers a glimpse into the broader geopolitical struggles that lie ahead.
As the U.S. continues to sell arms and maintain influence in energy-rich regions, it’s clear that the energy transition is far from a peaceful process. The decline of fossil fuels will likely give rise to new conflicts, driven by competition over renewable resources and control over emerging energy technologies.
The future of global politics will be defined not just by who controls oil, but by who leads the charge in the renewable energy race. In this new energy world order, the stakes are high, and the conflicts are evolving—but the power struggles remain as fierce as ever.
