The recent military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May 2025, triggered by the Pahalgam attack on April 22 that killed 26 civilians, has brought to light the complex geopolitical dynamics of South Asia. What began as an isolated terrorist incident quickly escalated into the most intense military exchange between these nuclear-armed neighbours since 1971, with Operation Sindoor by India and Operation Bunyan Marsoos by Pakistan demonstrating an alarming evolution in warfare capabilities for both nations. Beyond the immediate confrontation, however, lies a deeper and more troubling narrative: China's growing military and strategic support for Pakistan, which some analysts suggest may extend beyond conventional weapons to include controversial areas such as biological weapons research.
The Pahalgam Attack and Operation Sindoor: A Turning Point
On April 22, 2025, gunmen killed 26 people, mostly tourists, in Pahalgam, a resort town in Indian-administered Kashmir. The attack, claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), was particularly provocative as attackers deliberately targeted Hindu men for execution. India has long maintained that TRF acts as a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based armed group that India blames for numerous attacks on its soil.Following weeks of escalating tensions and exchanges of small-arms fire across the Line of Control, India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7. This military response was significantly more extensive than previous operations like Uri (2016) and Balakot (2019), representing a notable evolution in India's military strategy toward Pakistan.
According to Indian government statements, the operation used a mix of long-range stand-off weapons, including air-launched missiles and loitering munitions, to target nine sites belonging to terrorist groups like LeT and Jaish-e-Muhammad in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. India claimed to have killed over 100 terrorists, including several senior leaders.
The operation showcased India's growing arsenal of advanced weapons, including indigenous BrahMos cruise missiles, Israeli-made Spice bomb kits and Harop loitering munitions, and French-made Rafale fighters carrying Scalp air-launched cruise missiles. India's S-400 surface-to-air missiles, imported from Russia, also proved effective in defending against Pakistani counterattacks.
Pakistan's Response: Operation Bunyan Marsoos
Pakistan's counter-offensive, dubbed Operation Bunyan Marsoos (Arabic for "a structure made of lead"), represented its most significant military engagement with India in decades. Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian fighter jets – three Rafales, a MiG-29, and a Su-30 fighter – during an intense hour-long battle involving 125 aircraft.While India has not acknowledged any aircraft losses, a French Defense Ministry source confirmed that at least one Rafale fighter jet was lost in the battle. This incident, if fully verified, would represent a significant milestone in modern air combat – potentially the first time Chinese-made fighters have successfully engaged and defeated advanced Western aircraft in actual combat.The four-day military confrontation between May 7-10, 2025, eventually ended with a ceasefire, allegedly brokered by the United States. President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that his administration played a critical role in securing the agreement, though India maintains the truce was reached bilaterally.
China-Pakistan Military Partnership: More Than "Ironclad Brotherhood
The recent conflict has highlighted the depth and significance of China's military support for Pakistan. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China now supplies 81% of Pakistan's imported weapons, reflecting a dramatic shift from the early 2000s when the United States and China each supplied about one-third of Pakistan's arms.
This change coincides with India's own realignment toward the United States and its allies, including France and Israel, reducing its traditional reliance on Russian weaponry. As Pakistan lost access to American military technology over a decade ago due to concerns about terrorism and nuclear proliferation, China eagerly filled the void.
China's military assistance to Pakistan includes:
1. Advanced Fighter Jets: The J-10CE, China's export version of its advanced 4.5-generation fighter, was delivered to Pakistan in 2022. The aircraft is comparable to France's Rafale and represents the most advanced fighter in Pakistan's arsenal alongside the JF-17 Block III, which was co-developed by China and Pakistan.
2. Missile Systems: Pakistan's air force has been equipped with China's PL-15 air-to-air missiles, which have a reported range of 145-300 kilometres, potentially outranging many Western counterparts.
3. Air Defense Systems: Pakistan has deployed Chinese HQ-9B surface-to-air missile systems, comparable to Russia's S-300 or America's Patriot systems.
4. Command and Control Systems: Recent reports indicate Pakistan utilised a sophisticated command and control system created by China, integrating radars, fighter aircraft, and airborne systems into a unified defence network.
The May 2025 confrontation served as the first major combat test for much of this Chinese military hardware. As CNN reported, "For China, the world's fourth-largest arms exporter, the conflict between India and Pakistan could be offering the world a first real glimpse into how advanced Chinese military technology performs against proven Western hardware."
The Bioweapon Dimension: Alarming Allegations
Beyond conventional military hardware, there are growing concerns about possible China-Pakistan collaboration in biological weapons research – a domain with potentially catastrophic implications for regional security.
In April 2025, the U.S. State Department released its annual arms compliance report highlighting ongoing concerns about China's biological weapons activities. The report specifically mentioned China's failure to disclose offensive bioweapons work, including research on deadly agents like ricin, botulinum, anthrax, and marine toxins.For the first time, the report confirmed China's use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to potentially support bioweapons efforts, marking a significant shift in the global biological threat landscape. While the report primarily focused on China's activities within its own borders, it raised questions about whether such technology and expertise might be shared with strategic partners like Pakistan.These concerns are amplified by earlier allegations. In July 2024, Indian authorities reportedly seized a Chinese shipment of internationally banned chemicals destined for Pakistan, which some analysts claimed could be used in bioweapon development. The Indian news channel WION reported on this incident in a segment titled "Pakistan-China on a Secret Mission to develop bioweapon?" though concrete evidence of an active biological weapons program remains limited.
More troubling are persistent reports of a secret facility near Rawalpindi where Pakistan and China are allegedly collaborating on research involving deadly viruses. In November 2022, The Times of India reported that "while Covid-19 and its new variants still plague the world, Pakistan and China are continuing with bioweapons research in a secret facility near Rawalpindi."
While many of these allegations remain unverified, the combination of China's documented advances in AI-enhanced bioweapon research, its deepening military partnership with Pakistan, and its strategic interest in countering Indian power warrants serious attention from the international community.
Strategic Implications: A New Security Paradigm
The evolution of both India's military strategy and China-Pakistan cooperation signals a fundamental shift in South Asia's security landscape. India appears to have abandoned its traditional doctrine of strategic restraint in favour of a more assertive approach that accepts limited military confrontation as a necessary response to terrorism.
As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared after Operation Sindoor, "There is no such place in Pakistan where terrorists can sit and breathe in peace. We will enter their homes and kill them." This statement encapsulates India's shift from deterrence through threats to active cost imposition on terrorist networks and their alleged state sponsors.
For Pakistan, deeper integration with Chinese military systems offers short-term tactical advantages but creates long-term strategic dependencies. The May 2025 conflict demonstrated how Chinese weaponry has reshaped Pakistan's defensive capabilities, but also revealed its reliance on Beijing for continued technological support and upgrades.
China's motivations for supporting Pakistan extend beyond simple alliance dynamics. By arming Pakistan with advanced weapons systems, China achieves multiple strategic objectives:
1. It creates a permanent security challenge for India, forcing New Delhi to divide its military resources between two fronts.
2. It establishes a real-world testing ground for Chinese weapons against Western systems, providing valuable operational data.
3. It secures a loyal market for Chinese arms exports, helping to sustain China's domestic defence industry.
4. It strengthens China's influence in a key Belt and Road Initiative partner country.
The potential addition of biological weapons to this equation would represent a dangerous escalation. Unlike conventional weapons, bioweapons could be deployed covertly, with effects potentially attributed to natural outbreaks. Their development would violate the Biological Weapons Convention, to which both China and Pakistan are signatories.
The Bioweapon Threat: Reality or Rhetoric?
Allegations of bioweapon development must be approached with critical analysis. While certain indicators raise legitimate concerns, much of the available information comes from sources with potential biases or limited verification.
Several factors lend credibility to these concerns:
1. China's documented history of biological research programs that have not been fully disclosed to international authorities.
2. The U.S. State Department's explicit mention of Chinese biological weapons research involving AI technology in its 2024 compliance report.
3. Historical precedents of state actors pursuing bioweapon capabilities despite international prohibitions.
4. The strategic advantage such weapons could provide in asymmetric warfare scenarios.
However, significant counterarguments also exist:
1. Most allegations lack conclusive evidence and rely heavily on intelligence sources that cannot be independently verified.
2. Both China and Pakistan have consistently denied developing biological weapons.
3. The practical utility of bioweapons in modern warfare remains questionable, given their unpredictable nature and potential for global spread.
4. International monitoring mechanisms, while imperfect, create significant obstacles to large-scale bioweapon development.
What is certain is that even the perception of bioweapon development dramatically raises the stakes in regional conflicts. The mere suspicion that Pakistan might have access to Chinese biological warfare technology could influence Indian military planning and potentially lead to preventive strikes in future crises.
China's Strategic Calculus: A Dangerous Game
From Beijing's perspective, supporting Pakistan's military modernisation serves multiple objectives. It counterbalances growing U.S.-India cooperation, creates a market for Chinese defence exports, and establishes a strategically located ally in its Belt and Road Initiative.
During the May 2025 conflict, China publicly called for restraint while privately providing Pakistan with technical support and diplomatic backing. As tensions escalated, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed support for Pakistan, calling China its "ironclad friend."This support extended beyond rhetoric. While India struck Pakistani targets with French and Russian-made systems, Pakistan relied heavily on Chinese equipment. The claimed success of J-10C fighters against Indian Rafales resulted in China's state-owned AVIC Chengdu Aircraft seeing its shares surge by 40% in a single week.
The potential inclusion of bioweapon technology in this partnership would represent a significant escalation in China's support. Unlike conventional weapons, which can be openly transferred and demonstrated, biological agents and related technologies would necessarily be shared through covert channels, making international verification nearly impossible.Such support would also carry enormous risks for China itself. Any confirmed link between Chinese bioweapon technology and a subsequent outbreak or attack would result in severe international backlash and potential sanctions. Even by Chinese strategic calculations, this risk may outweigh potential benefits.
The Future of Indo-Pak Relations: Between Confrontation and Diplomacy
The May 2025 conflict has redrawn the parameters of Indo-Pakistani relations. What was once an unthinkable escalation threshold – direct missile strikes on military installations – has now been crossed, establishing a new and dangerous precedent.
India's Prime Minister Modi has declared this approach the "new normal" in India's fight against terrorism, suggesting that similar or more extensive operations could follow future terrorist attacks. This commitment creates what security experts call a "commitment trap" – having publicly promised to respond militarily, India's leadership may feel compelled to act even when restraint might be strategically preferable.Pakistan, emboldened by its perceived success in Operation Bunyan Marsoos and confident in Chinese support, may be less deterred by Indian threats than in previous decades. The risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation has consequently increased.The international community's role in managing this volatile relationship remains crucial but complicated. The United States, despite Trump's claims of diplomatic intervention in the May crisis, has increasingly aligned with India while distancing itself from Pakistan. China, meanwhile, has solidified its position as Pakistan's primary patron.These realignments create a situation resembling Cold War proxy dynamics, with India and Pakistan serving as fronts in the broader strategic competition between the United States and China. The addition of biological warfare capabilities would mirror the most dangerous aspects of Cold War rivalry, when both superpowers developed massive biological weapons stockpiles despite treaty prohibitions.
Conclusion: A Region at the Precipice
The evolving military dynamics between India and Pakistan, with China's growing involvement, present one of the most significant security challenges in Asia today. The May 2025 conflict demonstrated how quickly tensions can escalate between nuclear-armed adversaries and how external powers can shape regional security dynamics.Of particular concern is the potential introduction of biological weapons into this already volatile mix. While allegations of China-Pakistan collaboration in this area require further verification, even the possibility warrants serious attention from the international community.For India, the challenge is multifaceted: countering terrorism, deterring conventional military aggression, and preparing for emerging threats like bioweapons, all while navigating relationships with both the United States and China. For Pakistan, dependence on Chinese military technology offers short-term advantages but creates long-term vulnerabilities and strategic constraints.China's role as Pakistan's primary military patron carries both opportunities and risks. While it has successfully expanded its influence and tested its military hardware, it also risks being drawn into a regional conflict that could threaten its broader strategic interests.As these dynamics continue to evolve, international diplomatic efforts must focus not only on preventing conventional military escalation but also on strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention and other mechanisms to prevent the development and use of weapons of mass destruction. The stakes could not be higher – not just for South Asia, but for global security and stability.The shadow war between India and Pakistan may have temporarily receded from headlines following the May ceasefire, but the underlying tensions and the growing military capabilities on all sides ensure that peace remains fragile. Without concerted diplomatic intervention and a renewed commitment to arms control, including biological weapons, the next crisis could prove even more dangerous than the last.
