The geopolitical landscape of South Asia has undergone significant transformation over the past few decades, particularly in terms of military relationships and arms trade. The United States has been a pivotal player in this region, with its approach to Pakistan and India evolving considerably. Once a steadfast ally in Pakistan, the US has increasingly tilted toward India, creating new regional dynamics and raising questions about Pakistan's internal security challenges. This shift reflects changing American interests, regional security concerns, and Pakistan's own complex relationship with terrorism.
Historical Context: The US-Pakistan Military Alliance
The military relationship between Pakistan and the United States dates back to the early years of the Cold War. Following Pakistan's independence in 1947, the country aligned itself with Western powers, becoming America's frontline partner in containing Soviet influence in the region. This alliance was formalized through various defense agreements, with Pakistan joining the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) in the 1950s.
The relationship deepened during the 1980s Soviet-Afghan War, when Pakistan became the conduit through which American assistance flowed to Afghan resistance fighters. During this period, the US provided Pakistan with substantial military aid and equipment, including advanced F-16 fighter jets, which helped Pakistan reduce India's air superiority advantage in the region.
"The Pentagon reports total Foreign Military Sales agreements with Pakistan worth about $5.4 billion for FY2002-FY2014 (sales of F-16 combat aircraft and related equipment account for nearly half of this). Congress has appropriated about $3.6 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for Pakistan since 2001, more than two-thirds of which has been disbursed," according to a Congressional Research Service report
The post-9/11 era marked another significant phase in US-Pakistan military cooperation. As Pakistan became a crucial ally in the US-led "War on Terror," military assistance surged once more. Between 2001 and 2015, the United States provided Pakistan with:
- Eight P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft valued at $474 million
- 18 new F-16C/D Block 52 Fighting Falcon combat aircraft valued at $1.43 billion
- Hundreds of missiles including 100 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, 500 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, and 500 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles
- Thousands of military radio sets, TOW anti-armor missiles, and other equipment
The Shifting Paradigm: From Ally to Alleged "Terror Hub"
Despite the significant military assistance provided over decades, the US-Pakistan relationship has deteriorated markedly in recent years. Several factors contributed to this decline:
The Bin Laden Raid and Trust Deficit
The 2011 US raid that killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan—without prior notification to Pakistani authorities—represented a major breach of trust. The discovery of the world's most wanted terrorist living less than a mile from Pakistan's premier military academy raised serious questions about Pakistan's commitment to counterterrorism efforts.
The Afghan War End-Game and Reduction in US Aid
As the United States began withdrawing from Afghanistan, Pakistan's strategic importance diminished. This coincided with increasing American frustration over Pakistan's perceived "double game"—officially supporting counterterrorism efforts while allegedly maintaining ties with certain militant groups.
Allegations of Pakistan as a "Hub of Terrorism"
The narrative of Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism has gained significant traction in Western diplomatic and security circles. According to a recent analysis published in The Hindu, "Pakistan's terror infrastructure represents a deliberate, state-supported system that has survived for decades through deep institutional support within Pakistan's security establishment, which views these proxy forces as strategic assets rather than terrorist threats.
This infrastructure allegedly includes groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which have been designated as terrorist organizations by the United Nations Security Council. These organizations have been linked to major terrorist attacks, including the 2008 Mumbai attacks, which killed 166 people.
The U.S. Weapons Legacy in Pakistan
A recent development that underscores the complex dynamics of U.S.-Pakistan arms trade is the emergence of American weapons in the hands of militants inside Pakistan. According to a Washington Post investigation:
Sixty-three weapons seized from militants in Pakistan were provided by the U.S. government to Afghan forces during America's 20-year war. The banged-up [M4A1 carbine] rifle, bearing serial number W1004340 and stamped with the Colt logo, was among billions of dollars' worth of U.S. military equipment provided to Afghan forces, much of which was abandoned after the withdrawal of American troops in 2021.
This unintended transfer of American weaponry has reportedly given Pakistani militant groups a technological advantage, particularly in night-vision capabilities, which has altered the security dynamics within Pakistan itself.
They have the latest American-made weapons," said Ahmad Hussain, a Pakistani special forces constable who was critically injured in a targeted nighttime attack. "They could see us, but we couldn't see them."
The Rise of US-India Defense Partnership
As the US-Pakistan relationship deteriorated, the United States significantly strengthened its defense ties with India. This shift began in earnest after the end of the Cold War and accelerated during the 21st century.
Strategic Convergence
The primary driver of this strengthened relationship has been the mutual concern about China's growing influence and assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. India, with its substantial military capabilities and strategic location, is viewed as a crucial counterbalance to Chinese power.
The rise of China as a dominant power in the Indo-Pacific has further aligned U.S. and Indian interests. China's assertive actions in the South and East China seas as well as in the Indian Ocean threaten regional stability, posing potential conflict risks with the United States and India," according to a RAND Corporation analysis [RAND Corporation]
Major Arms Deals and Defense Cooperation
In recent years, the United States has become one of India's primary defense suppliers. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute:
Between 2006 and 2010, about 80 percent of India's major weapons came from Russia. Over the past four years, that figure has fallen to about 38 percent, with more than half of Indian imports coming from the United States and allies like France and Israel.
Major defense deals between the US and India include:
- Sale and co-production of General Electric jet engines for Indian fighter aircraft
- Co-development of next-generation Javelin anti-tank guided missiles
- Co-production of Stryker infantry combat vehicles
- Sale of 31 Predator drones
- Advanced maritime surveillance capabilities
Beyond arms sales, the two countries have strengthened their defense cooperation through:
- The signing of foundational agreements enabling greater interoperability
- Joint military exercises, including the annual Malabar naval exercises
- Intelligence sharing and operational coordination
- The establishment of joint defense innovation ecosystems
Counterterrorism Operations
The Pakistani military has conducted numerous operations against militant groups, particularly those targeting the Pakistani state. Operations like Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad have resulted in significant casualties among militant ranks.
According to the U.S. State Department's Country Reports on Terrorism 2022:
In 2022, Pakistan took steps to counter terrorism financing and restrain some India-focused terrorist groups. In May, Pakistan successfully prosecuted FBI most-wanted criminal and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba senior leader Sajid Mir on terrorist financing charges; he was then sentenced to 15 years imprisonment." [U.S. Department of State]
FATF Compliance
After being placed on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) "grey list" multiple times for deficiencies in combating terrorist financing, Pakistan made significant efforts to address these concerns:
In October [2022], the FATF removed Pakistan from the gray list of countries identified as jurisdictions with strategic deficiencies in their AML/CFT systems. Pakistan had been on the gray list since 2018.
Persistent Challenges
However, Pakistan continues to face significant challenges in effectively combating terrorism:
1. The country experienced increased terrorist threats in 2022, with major groups including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and ISIS-K.
2. Religious minorities faced significant threats from violent extremist groups.
3. Some radical madrassas continue to teach extremist doctrines, and Pakistan's efforts to regulate them have been inconsistent.
Pakistan-China Defense Relationship
As American military assistance declined, Pakistan deepened its defense ties with China. Beijing has become Pakistan's primary arms supplier, providing approximately 80 percent of Pakistan's weapons imports over the past four years.
Major Chinese arms supplied to Pakistan include:
- JF-17 Thunder fighter jets (jointly produced)
- Type 054A/P frigates
- VT-4 main battle tanks
- HQ-9/P long-range air defense systems
Nuclear Dimension and Regional Stability
Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, adding a dangerous dimension to their long-standing rivalry. The shifting pattern of conventional arms supplies influences the nuclear calculus of both countries. With India gaining advanced conventional capabilities from the United States, Pakistan may feel increased pressure to rely on its nuclear deterrent.
U.S. officials worry that with the hyper-nationalism in both India and Pakistan, where two well-stocked militaries operate in a tight air corridor and amid mutual suspicion, even the smallest of mistakes or exceeding of orders could lead to catastrophic escalations," notes Mujib Mashal, South Asia bureau chief for The New York Times.
The ISI's Role
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency has been accused of maintaining a complex relationship with various militant groups. According to The Hindu:
The ISI has operationalised terrorism as state policy through a three-tiered system — strategic direction and funding through specialised 'S-Wing' units; operational support via retired military personnel; and by providing material assistance such as weapons, training infrastructure, and intelligence.
Pakistan's Counter-Narrative
Pakistan maintains that it has been a victim rather than a sponsor of terrorism, suffering thousands of casualties in terrorist attacks. Pakistani officials point to the country's significant military operations against terrorist groups and cooperation with international counterterrorism efforts.
The Pakistani position is that Western powers, including the United States, bear significant responsibility for the region's terrorism problems due to their policies during and after the Soviet-Afghan War. Recently, Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto reportedly stated that Pakistan has been doing the "dirty work" for Western powers for a long time.
Conclusion: A Complex and Evolving Relationship
The relationship between the United States, Pakistan, and India in terms of arms trade and strategic partnerships continues to evolve in response to changing regional and global dynamics. While the United States has clearly pivoted toward India as its primary strategic partner in South Asia, the relationship with Pakistan remains important despite significant challenges.
The characterization of Pakistan as a "hub of terrorism" reflects real concerns about terrorist groups operating within its borders, but fails to acknowledge the complex historical, strategic, and political factors that have shaped Pakistan's approach to militant groups. It also overlooks Pakistan's own significant losses from terrorism and its efforts, however imperfect, to combat terrorist threats.
As the United States continues to deepen its partnership with India, finding a balanced approach to Pakistan that addresses legitimate security concerns while encouraging continued counterterrorism efforts will be essential for regional stability. Similarly, Pakistan must demonstrate greater commitment to dismantling terrorist infrastructure on its soil if it hopes to improve its international standing and relationship with the United States.
The arms trade in South Asia reflects these complex dynamics, with the flow of weapons not just strengthening military capabilities but also signaling strategic alignments and influencing regional security calculations. As American weapons flow increasingly to India while Chinese arms supply Pakistan, the region's security architecture is being fundamentally reshaped—with implications that will reverberate for decades to come.
